Permafrost Embankment Thermal Prediction via Deep Learning

By Dr Silpaja Chandrasekar, PhDReviewed by Susha Cheriyedath, M.Sc.Jun 4 2024

In a paper published in the Journal of Rock Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering, researchers introduced a novel approach for predicting the stochastic thermal regime of embankments in permafrost regions by integrating geotechnical knowledge into deep learning (DL), enhancing accuracy while reducing computational expenses.

Validation against monitoring data and numerical analyses demonstrated its efficacy, offering efficient prediction of embankment thermal behavior, even in heterogeneous conditions.

Background

Previous research extensively addressed permafrost-induced infrastructure challenges, notably in China's Qinghai-Tibet Railway. Traditional numerical simulations are computationally intensive. Surrogate models like physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) and deep operator networks (DeepONets) offer efficient alternatives by integrating physical constraints or learning infinite-dimensional mappings.

However, predicting the stochastic thermal regime of permafrost embankments remains challenging due to random boundary conditions and the complexities of thermal parameter fields. Implementing physics-informed approaches in this context requires addressing the intricacies of random thermal variations.

Permafrost Prediction Method

The methods section outlines a novel approach to predict the temperature distribution of permafrost barriers, which is crucial for infrastructure stability. Traditional stochastic numerical methods are computationally intensive, prompting the adoption of DL. However, limited temperature data from boreholes poses challenges for DL due to the scarcity of training samples. The proposed method integrates prior knowledge through numerical modeling, generating synthetic datasets encompassing boundary conditions and thermal parameters.

The process involves four steps: acquiring computational models and parameters, modeling physical parameters as random fields, using Monte Carlo simulations to compute temperature fields, and splitting the modeling results into paired input-output datasets. These datasets incorporate prior geotechnical knowledge, facilitating efficient deep neural network learning. The constructed DL model, a multi-input operator network (MIONet), consists of a branch net encoding random parameters and a trunk net encoding spatial-temporal coordinates.

The MIONet architecture employs a proper orthogonal decomposition-based trunk net to enhance precision and scalability in operator learning. Inputs include upper boundary conditions and thermal parameter fields extracted using fully connected neural networks (FNN).

Branch net outputs are merged through point-wise summation, while trunk net outputs are merged using point-wise multiplication. Mean squared error (MSE) is the loss function optimized using the Adam optimizer. Finally, the scaled production of MIONet enables efficient prediction of temperature fields for new input conditions, offering a promising solution for permafrost engineering challenges.

Permafrost Modeling Insights

The numerical experiments detailed in the results section offer insights into predicting permafrost embankment temperature distributions, which are vital for infrastructure stability. They focus particularly on the Qinghai-Tibet Railway embankment.

The computational model's setup includes considering upper boundary conditions and thermal parameters' uncertainties, crucial in reflecting real-world complexities. The study accurately models these uncertainties by employing stochastic processes and random field theory, providing a robust foundation for subsequent analysis.

Experiment setups, varying from isolated random boundary conditions to combined random boundary conditions and parameter fields, enable comprehensive exploration of the thermal regime's intricacies.

The detailed examination includes error metrics and visualizations depicting the mean and variance of temperature fields under different scenarios. These experiments highlight the method's adaptability in capturing diverse environmental influences on permafrost thermal behavior.

The validation phase demonstrates the model's efficacy in replicating real-world temperature distributions, corroborating the integration of prior geotechnical knowledge into the training dataset. The model's accuracy and reliability are affirmed through comparisons with monitoring data, reinforcing its utility in practical applications.

Further analysis of experimental outcomes reveals nuanced insights into prediction accuracy under varying degrees of uncertainty. Notably, incorporating field inputs in Experiment III significantly enhances prediction accuracy compared to Experiment I, elucidating the critical role of supplementary information in improving model performance.

Comparison with existing literature and computational time assessments underscore the method's efficiency and reliability, showcasing its potential for accelerating stochastic analysis while maintaining robust predictive capabilities. Overall, the results comprehensively validate the proposed approach, affirming its effectiveness in addressing complex permafrost engineering challenges.

Conclusion

To summarize, the study introduced a novel approach to predicting the temperature distribution of permafrost embankments by integrating DL with prior geotechnical knowledge. The method's effectiveness in efficiently and accurately forecasting the temperature field was demonstrated through numerical experiments considering various stochastic conditions.

The proposed knowledge-integrated DL method improved computational efficiency and achieved satisfactory accuracy, particularly when incorporating multi-branch network structures to handle strong variability in random fields. These findings suggested the potential of this approach for practical applications in permafrost engineering, paving the way for future research to enhance network architectures and explore broader application scenarios.

In conclusion, integrating DL with prior geotechnical knowledge offered a promising solution to address the challenges of predicting the stochastic thermal regime of permafrost embankments. Leveraging numerical modeling and advanced network structures achieved notable improvements in computational efficiency and prediction accuracy.

The study provided valuable insights for researchers and practitioners in permafrost engineering, highlighting the importance of considering field inputs and optimizing network architectures for enhanced performance. Future efforts will focus on refining the method and extending its applicability to tackle more complex engineering problems in cold regions.