AI and Geopolitical Shifts Could Reshape the World by 2040, But Are Governments Ready?

By Soham NandiReviewed by Joel ScanlonSep 15 2024

As AI rapidly evolves and global tensions rise, nations face an urgent need for proactive strategies to prevent widespread unemployment and geopolitical crises by 2040.

Brace for Impact: Facing the AI Revolution and Geopolitical Shifts in a Future Societal Scenario for 2025–2040

In an article published in the journal Societies, Michael Gerlich of the SBS Swiss Business School explored the combined impacts of artificial intelligence (AI) and geopolitical shifts on global dynamics by 2040. Using a Delphi process,  scenario analysis, and probabilistic modeling, he forecasted AI-induced unemployment, governance challenges, and societal changes with a high probability of significant disruption.

Gerlich also examined geopolitical factors, such as nationalization and global conflicts emphasizing the potential escalation of existing tensions, particularly involving Russia, Ukraine, and Israel. He emphasized the need for proactive governance and international cooperation to address these risks and opportunities, highlighting a critically low level of preparedness among governments and businesses, estimated at only 10%.

Background

The rapid development of AI and evolving geopolitical tensions are reshaping global dynamics. AI holds transformative potential across industries, influencing economic growth, employment, and security.

Previous studies have emphasized AI’s role in enhancing efficiency and decision-making while highlighting challenges like job displacement and ethical concerns, such as bias and accountability. However, gaps remain in understanding how AI intersects with geopolitical strategies, particularly with the rise of great-power competition between nations like the U.S. and China. This study goes beyond isolated impacts, exploring the complex interplay between these forces.

Past work has primarily focused on the economic impacts of AI or geopolitical developments in isolation. Few studies have addressed the combined effects of these forces on global security and governance. Furthermore, existing research often overlooks the implications of AI in exacerbating global inequalities and creating new forms of competition. Gerlich’s work filled these gaps by incorporating a comprehensive scenario analysis, accounting for diverse outcomes across different geopolitical landscapes.

This paper filled these gaps by examining the intertwined impacts of AI and geopolitical shifts from 2025 to 2040, using scenario analysis to explore their combined influence on society, the economy, and global politics. It highlighted the need for proactive governance and adaptive strategies to manage the dual challenges of AI’s rapid evolution and rising geopolitical instability, ensuring international security and sustainable development.

Research Methodology and Analytical Framework

The researchers employed the complex adaptive systems (CAS) framework to analyze the dynamic interplay between AI advancements and geopolitical developments. The CAS framework, rooted in interdisciplinary research, was ideal for examining how small changes in one area, such as AI policy, could lead to significant, unpredictable global outcomes. This approach provided a more holistic understanding of the cascading effects these forces might have on global stability. This holistic approach allowed for the exploration of future scenarios involving AI and geopolitics from 2025 to 2040.

The author integrated qualitative and quantitative methodologies, including the Delphi method, multiple-scenario analysis, and probabilistic modeling. Through the Delphi method, expert opinions from 30 global AI and geopolitical specialists were gathered, refined over multiple rounds, and used to build consensus on potential future scenarios. These scenarios, grounded in expert insights, explored the interactions between AI adoption rates, economic growth, and geopolitical alliances. Probabilistic modeling, using tools such as Monte Carlo simulations, was crucial in quantifying uncertainties and assessing the likelihood of various outcomes.

The author also employed probabilistic modeling to quantify uncertainties, utilizing Monte Carlo simulations to assess the likelihood of various outcomes. The combined insights offered a nuanced understanding of the risks and opportunities posed by AI and geopolitical shifts, providing a valuable tool for policymakers and industry leaders.

Findings and Analysis

Gerlich presented a comprehensive analysis of the future impact of AI and geopolitical developments on global dynamics, particularly by 2040. Two primary domains were examined, namely, AI’s multifaceted influence and critical geopolitical factors. AI was expected to have significant economic, societal, and security impacts, with a high likelihood of driving unemployment rates up to 40-50% due to AI-driven automation in sectors like consultancy and finance.

This could lead to social unrest and destabilize governments, which might struggle to manage the socio-economic consequences. The study emphasized the critical need for governments to develop robust social safety nets and retraining programs to mitigate these impacts. Additionally, AI’s exponential speed of change posed regulatory challenges, further threatening social cohesion and creating governance gaps.

Moreover, AI and quantum computing were anticipated to increase security risks, notably in cybersecurity, where global systems might struggle to keep up with technological advances. In parallel, while AI holds potential for medical and environmental advancements, there was concern that its benefits might exacerbate inequalities in healthcare access and sustainability efforts. The research highlighted that these advancements could lead to significant disparities between developed and developing regions.

In the geopolitical sphere, the authors highlighted a likely rise in nationalism and conflicts, notably involving Russia, Ukraine, and Israel. This shift could destabilize global cooperation, hinder sustainability initiatives, and heighten public anxiety. Ultimately, the findings suggested that both AI and geopolitical developments could significantly reshape global dynamics, with governments largely unprepared for the profound societal and security implications. This lack of preparedness is particularly troubling given the potential for cascading global crises.

Conclusion

In conclusion, this paper offers critical insights into the profound effects AI and geopolitical shifts could have on global dynamics by 2040. By combining scenario analysis with probabilistic modeling, the research underscores the far-reaching impacts on employment, security, and international relations.

The findings reveal significant challenges, including widespread unemployment, governance gaps, and heightened geopolitical tensions, with a strikingly low probability of adequate government response. The study emphasizes the urgent need for proactive governance, international cooperation, and strategic foresight to navigate the complexities of these dual forces. Without these measures, the potential disruptions may outweigh the opportunities, jeopardizing global stability.